Russia's latest movement towards the Ukranian border is unlikely to be a "hoax", a former British Army major has warned, with around 140,000 Russian troops stationed near the Ukraine border.
The armed forces minister James Heappey admitted he was “worried” about the prospect of Russian troops moving into Ukraine, with the prospect that “tens of thousands of people could die”.
The MP said his "gut feeling" suggested fighting was "inevitable", having looked at the cost of putting so many troops, planes and ships into one area.
Before entering politics, Mr Heappey served in the Army reaching the rank of Major.
During his 10 year career in the Rifles, the MP served on operations in Kabul in 2005, Northern Ireland in 2006, Basra in 2007 and Sangin in Helmand Province in 2009.
The politician also served in Kenya and across the United Kingdom.
The armed forces minister was told on BBC Breakfast that he seemed “very worried” and asked if fighting was “inevitable”, to which he said: “Yes, I am (worried).
“I would draw a distinction between imminent and inevitability.
“I think the urgency with which I and other colleagues have briefed on your programmes is a reflection of the fact that all of the conditions are set, and that the moment President Putin takes the decision it is literally just a matter of minutes before military effect could be felt in Ukrainian cities.
“That’s different, however, to inevitability.
“I have a gut feeling because I’m seeing what I’m seeing and I don’t think you spend that amount of money inputting that number of troops and planes and ships into an area unless you mean it, but I have hope that a diplomatic process can succeed, because the consequences of that not being the case are that tens of thousands of people could die.”
Speaking later to LBC, the minister continued to back up his point of view that Russia's approach suggested the current threat was not a “hoax”.
The West could now be entering a struggle with Russia that could last a generation or more, the minister claimed.
Asked on LBC whether the tension with Ukraine was the “new normal”, Mr Heappey said: “It is a possibility.”
When told the possibility of a constant Russian threat felt like a return to the Cold War era, the Conservative minister replied: “Yes, and whether he (Russian president Vladimir Putin) invades or not, I think we have to be clear that we are entering a new period of acute competition with Russia that could last a generation or more.”
Is Russia going to invade Ukraine?
Pressed on whether a Cold War type threat raised the potential for Moscow to permanently keep troops in places like Belarus, Mr Heappey said: “I don’t know … exactly what that (competition with Russia) looks like – does President Putin leave everything in place as a sort of persistent threat against Ukraine? I think that would be unaffordable – it would be hugely expensive.
“One of the reasons I don’t think this is a kind of wind-up or a hoax, or a way of undermining Western intelligence, is it costs an incredible amount of money to put 140,000 troops on the border of a country, send half of your air force and all of the amphibious shipping.”
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