The Chancellor is preparing to deliver what will likely be the last Budget before the general election, but what can we expect from it?
Most of the speculation so far has focused on tax cuts, although both Jeremy Hunt and Prime Minister Rishi Sunak have been keen to steer the talk away from the possibility of further tax reductions in recent weeks.
Following the publication of official forecasts, the amount of “headroom” available to meet their fiscal rules has reduced.
The main question has been whether Mr Hunt will cut income tax or repeat the national insurance cut he introduced in last year’s autumn statement, with either offering a pre-election giveaway to voters.
The reported worsening of fiscal forecasts, however, suggests any reduction would not be on the same scale as the autumn’s 2p national insurance cut.
The Chancellor has also been clear that he will not pay for tax cuts with borrowing, meaning a combination of spending cuts and tax rises elsewhere will be necessary for him to keep to his own fiscal rules on debt.
One possible source of revenue that has been suggested would be scrapping the “non-dom” tax status that allows foreign nationals who live in the UK, but are officially domiciled overseas, to avoid paying UK tax on their overseas income or capital gains.
The policy is a key plank of Labour’s plans and has previously been resisted by the Government, but the opposition has said it could raise as much as £2 billion.
Other rumoured tax rises include a new levy on vapes and removing tax breaks for second-home owners who rent out their properties to tourists.
Mr Hunt, meanwhile, faces pressure from Conservatives to cut other taxes, including stamp duty on properties and VAT on purchases by tourists.
There has also been speculation that Mr Hunt could cut post-election spending plans even further in order to free up money for pre-election tax cuts.
Overall departmental spending is currently pencilled in to rise by 1% per year in real terms after 2025, and the Chancellor could reduce this to 0.7%.
But experts have already cast doubt on the whether the existing plans are realistic, as they would involve significant cuts to unprotected services such as the courts, police and local authorities.
Few measures have been confirmed so far, with most formal announcements being saved for Wednesday, but the Chancellor has already set out some spending commitments.
On Monday, he announced a £360 million investment in advanced manufacturing projects across the life sciences, automotive and aerospace sectors.
The Treasury has also announced a package of £800 million intended to boost productivity in the public sector, including introducing artificial intelligence into parts of the justice system, digitising more services and expanding child social care places.
The investment is expected to return £1.8 billion to the Treasury by 2029.
Mr Hunt has also announced changes to pension regulations, including a requirement for funds to declare how much they invest in UK companies, in order to “focus minds” and boost investment in British businesses.
Comments: Our rules
We want our comments to be a lively and valuable part of our community - a place where readers can debate and engage with the most important local issues. The ability to comment on our stories is a privilege, not a right, however, and that privilege may be withdrawn if it is abused or misused.
Please report any comments that break our rules.
Read the rules hereLast Updated:
Report this comment Cancel